Juras Kalasouski

Situated between the East and the West, the North and the South, for centuries long Belarus was at the junction of cultures and creeds, in unique conditions of multinational contacts at the crossroads of the Eastern and Western civilizations. And today’s realities confirm it: after more than ten years of the isolation policy Europe invites Belarus to work together, seeking to pull it out of Russia’s sphere of influence.
Recently the Warsaw Center for International Relations organized a week-long information and educational visit for the Belarusian journalists who won the competition dedicated to comparing changes which occurred in Poland and Belarus during the last twenty years. Over the week several meetings were held with Polish experts, politicians and journalists, and one of their main topics was a discussion on prospects of the new policy of the unified Europe towards Belarus. The meetings were all the more interested because Poland is one of the authors of the Eastern Partnership program through which the European Union plans to improve relations with Belarus. And it is the Eastern partnership which is the priority area for Poland in today’s policy of the unified Europe.
I will remind that this program developed by the European Union at the initiative of Poland and Sweden and approved in May 2009 in Prague declares that the civil society is a key factor for success of democratic and market-oriented reforms and provides for closer cooperation between the European Union and six Eastern European countries – Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine – in the economic and political spheres.
To Belarus, its participation in the Eastern Partnership means liberalization of the electoral legislation and trade relations with the European Union, simplification of the visa regime, and participation in programs on energy security, administrative reforms, and environmental protection. Thus, the Eastern Partnership opens to our country the door to Europe which remained closed for a long time.
Already some analysts call the Eastern Partnership a turning point, a historic event and even a beginning of Belarus’ comeback to the mainstream of the European civilization which it historically belongs to. That said, it is beyond dispute that the Eastern Partnership is an outset of a new policy whose forms and methods are still being defined. This brings up the question: what does Europe expect from Belarus and how does it envisage building relations with our country further on?
After numerous conversations with Polish analysts, community leaders and journalists I tried to create a general picture which would describe rather integrally the new turning point in the EU policy known as the Eastern Partnership.
But I will reiterate before everything else that this project is only a start of a new and probably long-term stage of the European policy which is still to be filled with concrete substance. The European Union which intends to work with Belarus in the long term has not decided yet on the forms and methods of its new policy. Also, one should not forget that the European Union has twenty-seven centers of decision-making many of which are not very interested in developing relations with Belarus giving priority to other projects.
The first expert who we met in Warsaw was Mr. Jarosław Kalinowski, delegate on Belarus’ matters in the European Parliament. Mr. Kalinowski pointed out that today, despite differences of views on democratic standards in Belarus and Poland, our countries must cooperate. And Poland should not isolate itself from Belarus but should bring its eastern neighbor closer to itself gradually and through small steps, for example, through trade and economic relations. It resembles a boot put in the door that we must open: we will not be able to open it yet, but we will not let it be closed.
Certainly, Poland also wants to help the Belarusian civil society which desires democratic changes; it wants to develop the civil society because in order to change the situation in Belarus the society itself has to change. The West sees the simplification of the visa regime and the cultural cooperation as important aspects which can influence the public opinion. At the same time, Poland and other EU countries understand that the Belarusians have to decide their own destiny.
And Michał Kacewicz, journalist of Newsweek weekly, hopes that the new generation of the Belarusian elite will orient itself to Europe and will be able to govern the country in a new way in the future. And Poland which was earlier a wall between Belarus and Europe wants to become a bridge between them today. But it will not be easy. Poland has no big influence yet in the European Union, and the latter, in its turn, has no consolidated policy towards Belarus. This is why the process of entanglement of Belarus to the European Union’s sphere of influence will be, most likely, a very slow one because the unified Europe is a big and heterogeneous structure.
Also, Polish diplomats have no elaborate plan of actions yet in respect of Belarus – it is difficult to fraternize with official Minsk right away! Certainly, any steps forward of the Belarusian authorities will be welcomed: so, Poles are very concerned over the issue of unrecognition by the official authorities of the Union of Poles headed by Angelika Borys. As for the simplification of the visa regime, an important aspect here is the de facto absence of the border between Belarus and Russia.
Also Mr. Kacewicz expressed an interesting opinion that if the trade and economic cooperation alone was established between the West and Belarus in absence of democratic transformations in the Belarusian society it might lead to an era of new isolation and mental alienation: having a contact in the sphere of economy and trade, the Europeans may discard the thought that Belarus belongs or may belong to Europe.
The journalist pointed out that Europe was disappointed in possibilities of the Belarusian opposition and now, after more than ten years of unsuccessful policy of ignoring the official authorities of the country, the Europeans faced a question: “If we lost so many years in vain, betting on the isolation policy, what should we do with Belarus then? What to do when we support opposition all the time but it gives no result?”
Mr. Eugeniusz Smołar, expert of the European Commission in the matters of the Eastern policy also pointed out that today the European Union simply could not fail to recognize and ignore official Minsk because the latter governed de facto in Belarus. Certainly, cooperation with Belarusian NGOs directed at promoting democratic transformations in the Belarusian society will also be continued.
If the principled isolation policy collapsed its place is taken now by the pragmatic policy directed at preserving stability in this region and obtaining certain dividends from the economic cooperation. Realities of the global market are such that Belarus could not exist as an isolated island and its government will have either to sacrifice the independence or to begin the process of democratization which is hazardous for the authorities. If the government of Belarus begins to cooperate with the European Union groups of people will emerge in the Belarusian society which will link their future with Europe.
In this connection, Mr. Smołar stressed that the new EU policy towards Belarus was a gradual lifting of sanctions in exchange for concessions of the Belarusian authorities but not the way of revolution.
Finally, Marek Ostrowski, observer of the influential Polish weekly Polityka, expressed an opinion that Poland, seeking to develop on the Western pattern and having arranged its relations with the powerful neighbor in the west (Germany), had to turn to the east. Certainly, Poles would ideally like to see a powerful neighbor there as well which would push Poland towards positive changes. Anyway, independent of how today’s Belarus looks from the point of view of Poles, they have no other options, according to Mr. Ostrowski, but to promote neighborliness and cross-border cooperation with this country.

Mr. Ignacy Niemczycki, expert of the department of strategic analysis of the Committee for the European Integration, believes that the reason why Poland turns attention to its eastern borders is that they became the EU border now. The unified Europe, in its turn, should expand its influence in the eastern direction (through the neighborhood policy) in order to neutralize Russia’s influence. Certainly, the weakness of the Belarusian opposition has also made Europe look for ways of having working relationship with official Minsk. And the trade and economic cooperation which in the longer term should lead to the country’s democratization is seen as the main vector of this working relationship at its initial stage. However, the Belarusian society must be active because Europe can only offer certain opportunities to Belarus.
A similar opinion was expressed by Ireneusz Bil, head of the Foundation of the former Polish president Alaksander Kwaśniewski.
The West came to the conclusion that if it was impossible to bring about revolutionary changes through cooperation with opposition one must go by the evolutionary path: the younger generation of the Belarusian authorities is more oriented to Europe, and it means that in the long term it may change the geopolitical vector of the country.
“We are convinced that democracy cannot be imposed from above, it should ripen on its own in the society”, Mr. Bil stressed. Now the West wants to use new instruments in its relations with Belarus and, by doing so, to provide it with new opportunities for democratic changes. The main task of the European Union is to pull Belarus out of Russia’s sphere of influence. Anyway, Poles themselves are not yet sure of efficiency of the new policy towards Belarus, because the European Union is rather a big and heterogeneous structure, many member countries of which prefer other projects.
A representative of the Polish Foreign Ministry also spoke about the evolutionary path of cooperation between the European Union and Belarus. According to him, the priority of Europe is to promote the independence of Belarus and stability in the region, and democratic changes come after.
In the past decade the Europeans had time to realize that the policy of isolation was the worst scenario on a par with the incorporation of Belarus into Russia. At the same time, one should not think that the Eastern Partnership is directed against Russia as the future of this country is linked to Europe as well.
And the fact that the European Union allocated comparatively inconsiderable money for the development of relations with Belarus in the framework of the Eastern Partnership means that Europe is interested in this project and ready to expand cooperation provided that there are trends of democratic transformations in Belarus. However, nobody in the West has illusions about feasibility of relatively quick democratic transformation in Belarus.
“Why do Poles kiss hands of a woman? Because one has to start with something”, the politician told this joke to show that the Eastern Partnership is also a beginning of a new stage in the pan-European policy.
And a deputy of the Polish Sejm and member of the commission on Belarus told that in the Polish Sejm there is a so called “group of friends of Belarus” (around thirty parliamentarians) which works a lot on the Belarusian issue and would like to see this country in a totally different economic, cultural and political situation. However, the parliamentarian recognized that one had to work a lot and hard in this direction: “There are no simple decisions in the Belarusian issue. The key partner of Europe in relations with this country is primarily young people and intelligentsia, the generation that may change Belarus”.
A lot of attention in our discussions was given to the question what Poland got from its membership in the European Union and what Belarus may get from cooperation with the unified Europe.
So, Mr. Jarosław Kalinowski, delegate for Belarus’ matters in the European Parliament, pointed out that big doubts and fear that the accession to the European Union would lead to an economic disaster did not come true. The opposite happened – Poland got a powerful support in spheres of agriculture, environment protection and preservation of cultural traditions. Moreover, the big advantage is that Europe supports namely the European pattern of the country’s development by allocating large subsidies for relevant changes in Poland.
For example, Mr. Juliusz Głuski, press secretary of the EURO-2012 association, which prepares the European soccer championship, told that Poland which was getting ready to receive Euro-2012 together with Ukraine, had got a very powerful impetus to the development of the appropriate infrastructure: construction of new stadiums, training grounds, roads, reconstruction of airports, etc. “We simply must develop rapidly, and Euro-2012 is a sort of whip over us, because we should not bring shame on ourselves in front of everybody”, he stressed.
Mr. Dariusz Wojtal, representative of the Polish Chamber for Tourism, described changes in the Polish economy by the example of the tourist industry. It is interesting that after the Polish accession to the European Union it was the tourism that had the greatest impetus for development, because borders became open and Poland entered the market of Western tour operators. Thus, if in 2004 Egypt, for example, was visited by only 150,000 Poles, in 2008 it was visited by 600,000. Certainly, big investments from the European Union have also contributed to the development of tourism. And today the tourism brings about one third of revenues of the Polish budget – even more than the energy sector does. Naturally, infrastructure is also developing, and now it has to meet the highest requirements. And in general, today Poles attach great importance to how to sell and how to make Poland an attractive destination for tourists.
And Mr. Ignacy Niemczycki identified quite a number of positive changes in Poland after its accession to the European Union:
•    GDP growth, because Poland receives big investments from the European Union;
•    reduction of unemployment (2003 – 20%, 2008 – 10%) owing to the creation of new jobs and the migration of workforce to EU countries;
•    development of tourism (open borders);
•    development of system of environmental protection which has to meet the European standards;
•    harmonization of legislation;
•    changes in mentality – today Poles perceive themselves Europeans to a much greater degree than they did before the accession to the European Union.
A very positive opinion on Poland’s accession to the European Union was also expressed by Mariusz Handzlik, adviser of the President of Poland in matters of international relations, who also described very thoroughly the European prospects of Belarus.
Mr. Handzlik said that changes which had taken place in Poland during the last twenty years and especially after its accession to the European Union had surpassed all expectations and attested that decisions which had been taken in 1989 were correct. What Poles see as the best is that they have freedom and possibility to choose and hold their destiny in their own hands.
“The European Union is the best experiment in the world’s history, the unique State entity which benefits its citizens as well as the EU member States a lot. But Europe will never be free until it does not express solidarity towards others, and until it does not include countries which now belong to the Eastern Partnership program. We cannot be fully happy until our eastern neighbors are in worse conditions”, the Polish diplomat pointed out.
Actually, the Eastern Partnership, according to Mr. Handzlik, should draw the above mentioned countries and the European Union together, and be a bridge between the unified Europe and these countries:
“The Eastern Partnership is a great chance for rapprochement with Europe. At the same time, we understand that it is not a swift-flowing process because even for Poland it took fifteen years to join the European Union. Today we want cooperation, and you may count on our solidarity and assistance. Nevertheless, everything depends on the will of the Belarusian society”.
And Europe expects some steps to meet from Belarus, and namely: liberalization of the electoral legislation, cessation of restriction of the freedom of the mass media and NGOs, market liberalization and economic reforms. In order to begin the rapprochement with the European Union Belarus should first of all join the World Trade Organization. Another very important aspect is unrecognizing of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Belarus. It is also very important for Poland that the Belarusian authorities stop persecuting the Union of Poles in Belarus headed by Angelika Borys.
At the end, the advisor of Lech Kaczyński suggested that such a powerful structure as the European Union should expand, and it means that political consultations with Belarus would continue: “We use principles of solidarity and democracy, and we want to share all the best Poland has with our neighbors. The Eastern Partnership is in the first place an instrument that helps us to talk to these countries. Integration of Belarus into the European Union and NATO is unavoidable, because there is no future Europe without such States as Belarus, and as those which emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union”.
Let us summarize what was said above.
The main objectives of the Eastern Partnership program are:
•    to engage civil societies of the Eastern Partnership countries in the EU sphere (including NGOs, representatives of business, and local authorities) in order to bring these countries to the European Union to a maximum extent;
•    integration in different aspects of activities (in the first place, the creation of a common economic space);
•    simplification of the visa regime;
•    cooperation in the field of energy security and development of energy infrastructure.
What the Eastern Partnership and further cooperation with the European Union may give to Belarus:
- simplified travel of the Belarusian citizens to the EU countries;
- extended cross-border cooperation which contributes to a greater interaction in the economic development and environmental protection;
- backing up of the Belarusian economy, assistance in developing free enterprise and preparation of Belarusian enterprises to their accession to the European market;
- support of programs of the economic and social development of Belarus through the European financial assistance;
- improvement of systems of health protection and education;
- more efficient State and local governance;
- reform of the legal and judicial system in order to secure equal rights for all citizens;
- better economic opportunities for Belarus and improved living conditions for its citizens through the development and modernization of transport and energy systems;
- improvement of the environment: quality of water, waste disposal and support in overcoming the aftermath of the Chernobyl disaster;
- closer dialogue and cooperation with Europe in all other areas.
Thus, the door to the European Union is not shut, and it depends only on us whether we want to enter the house of the unified Europe. Everybody will gain from it.