Raman Jakauleuski

When the leader of neighboring Belarus appeared in September in Vilnius and met the president of Lithuania, it became, after all, an event and a sensation of local significance. After awhile, in different mass media the speculations appeared that Warsaw might become the next objective for the Belarusian ruler. How the current relations between Belarus and Poland and their real prospects may contribute to Lukashenka’s appearance in Poland and the continuation of the dialogue between Belarus and the European Union?
After the publication of the article about Belarus which was written jointly by the heads of foreign ministries of Lithuania and Italy there is a feeling that it may have been co-authored by their Polish colleague as well. He also advocates the “entanglement” of Lukashenka into Europe being guided by pragmatic considerations.
Naturally, to a large extent the pragmatism, or the realpolitik, as this line of behavior is also known, helps strongly to promote the domestic business. To what extent business interests may coincide with national interests of any given country which adhere to the European values is a matter for debate. It was confirmed once again by the Lithuanian-Belarusian forum held in September in Vilnius with Lukashenka’s participation.
Meetings in the Presidential Palace, the Foreign Ministry, the Sejm, and the non-governmental Center for International Relations were not held without discussions on this subject. Positions of the Foreign Ministry and the Government of Poland in respect of the current Eastern policy and Belarus in particular are now clearer to me. In my opinion, it resembles now in large measure the well-known position of the German Foreign Ministry when it was headed by Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
I believe that the recent parliamentary elections in Germany which resulted in the forthcoming change of leadership of the Foreign Ministry should correct to some extent Berlin’s policy towards Minsk. Advances and compromises of one party which accompanied for some past time the so-called dialogue between the European Union and Lukashenka’s regime were never matched up to by the other party. German Ambassador to Belarus Gebhardt Weiss who was a great enthusiast of this dialogue had to recognize it recently in one of his interviews. This recognition with a bitter taste was made in his recent interview which the Embassy had to disseminate by its own means.
The matter is that one “respectable” presidential newspaper tried to amend the text of this interview, and it prompted the Ambassador to protest. And only a week after the Day of Reunification of Germany, on the occasion of which this publication was conceived, the author’s text of this interview was published after all. It is just a remark to illustrate Minsk’s behavior.
I do not think that now, when a political scandal, associated with some renowned figures of the ruling party, broke out in Poland, the Polish government would afford to take up from Berlin the torch of the “enthusiasts’ march” in respect of the ruling regime in Belarus. I deliberately do not use here the name of the Polish capital city where such realpolitik of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski is not shared by everyone.
Adepts of such policy towards Lukashenka still cherish a hope for emergence of some groups of influence within the ruling nomenklatura which will if not democratize but at least modernize the ruling regime. A kind of Gorbachev’s perestroika Belarusian style. I am not certain that supporters of such hypotheses are always accurately informed about Belarusian realities. But without accurate information various assumptions about processes that go on within the ruling class in Belarus seem to be simply speculative. And irresponsible.
According to Michal Kacevicz, editor of Polish Newsweek, Polish public opinion came to a standstill. Popular belief in “color revolutions” turned out to be naïve in respect of Belarus. As for the Polish initiative of the Eastern Partnership, it is, in the editor’s opinion, merely a mutation of ideas about Eastern interests.
It should be pointed out that in political circles both in Lithuania and Poland such realpolitik of governments with Lukashenka’s ruling regime is not shared by everyone. If in the Lithuanian Seimas I would cite among its serious opponents and critics, for example, the head of the International Affairs’ Commission Audronius Ažubalis, I have not noticed such outstanding critics in the Polish Sejm.
In the Polish Sejm there is a group of parliamentarians on relations with Belarus. But it is not a group of interparliamentary cooperation but simply “friends of Belarus”, as they call themselves, who are concerned with prospects of democracy, freedom of media and civil society in the neighboring country where the parliament was appointed and not elected at free elections, and this parliament is now a mere appendix of the Presidential Administration. This is why no opportunities for cooperation are seen in this area of relations between Poland and Belarus. One should point out here the important role of Lithuanian and Polish MEPs in the presence of the Belarusian topic in the European Parliament. Their critical position is able to “sober” now and then both home and other politicians.
Some differences in assessments and approaches in the Polish foreign policy which happen to take place in the country’s bodies of government are not concealed by anyone. For example, in the Presidential Palace. As one of our interlocutors, Eugeniusz Smolar, Solidarność’s veteran, former president of the Center for International Relations (Warsaw), and now an expert of the European Commission in matters of the Eastern policy, pointed out, the Polish president is renowned for his adherence to principles, now and then even very strong one. Mariusz Handzlik, minister for internationals relations in the President’s office, retranslated in to us in a very persuasive manner.
The Polish president consistently supports the open-door policy towards Ukraine and Georgia as for their aspirations for EU membership. The principle of solidarity is an enormous success without precedent in history, probably, with only exception of Hanse. But it was a union of German-speaking towns. The European Union is multinational.
And the declared Eastern Partnership is impossible without free mass media and NGOs. And also if the situation with the Union of Poles in Belarus headed by Angelika Borys and unrecognized by the authorities remains unchanged. It is known that Lukashenka sees solely trade and economic advantages in such partnership. He spoke about it very passionately and at times convincingly at the opening ceremony of the business forum in Vilnius.
Today, the highest level of bilateral contacts between Warsaw and Minsk is limited by meetings between heads of governments and foreign ministries. Moreover, they did not take place in the capital cities of the two countries. As I understood from some conversations, after Radosław Sikorski was on a visit in Bialowieza forest in Belarus in last September, it is now the turn of his Belarusian counterpart Siarhiej Martynau to come on a visit. It looks like he is expected.
It is possible that heads of foreign ministries of two countries will choose to meet again in the same forest but on its Polish side. As for the next meeting of prime ministers, Donald Tusk cannot come to Minsk for the time being due to some very specific reasons. According to some information, his passport is stamped with the prohibitive stamp of the Belarusian border guards, impressed there at the time when Tusk was not yet Prime Minister. So, a meeting of the prime ministers of two countries on the Belarusian territory does not seem possible yet for purely technical reasons of legal nature. And the time has not come yet for a meeting between presidents of Poland and Belarus. This answer Mariusz Handzlik, minister in the President’s office, gave to the question about a possible visit of Lukashenka to Poland.
Another issue was debated during conversations in Warsaw: may “Lukashenka’s factor” be used in the rough fighting between the opposition and the government which is now under way in Poland, as well as in the presidential campaign that should end in next autumn?
As practically all Polish interlocutors reassured, they are not inclined to see any role of this factor at the forthcoming presidential election in Poland. At the same time, some of them pointed at ramifications of Lukashenka’s visit to Vilnius which influenced negatively relations between Poland and Lithuania. The reception of Lukashenka at the presidential level would have infringed in some way upon the existing strategic partnership and solidarity of the heads of two States which neighbor Belarus. That is, “Lukashenka’s factor” is still able to bother his neighbors.
They promise in Brussels and other European capitals that the launching of programs and projects in the framework of the Eastern Partnership should take place in practice in 2010. It is obvious that this process will not go without problems. Especially if among member states of the Eastern Partnership there will be a State under EU sanctions, even if they are suspended.
After the enactment of the Lisbon Treaty when posts of President and Minister for Foreign Affairs of the European Union are introduced, the governments of the EU member states will have to have more concurrence in the foreign policy than they have now. And more responsibility on the part of those who continue to hope for Lukashenka’s “entanglement” into Europe. After all, it is difficult to predict all possible ramifications of such policy for everybody.
I would not leave out completely the presence of “Lukashenka’s factor” in Polish political infightings. Especially in the next year. If some of Polish politicians completely ignore Lukashenka, he is able to remind about himself in some or other situations. Be it about the Union of Poles in Belarus or on any other topic which is not indifferent to the Polish society.
Some experts in Warsaw say that Lukashenka still may pay a visit to Poland. But already on the invitation of the new president.
It may be recalled that President Kwaśniewski had a principle that it is always better to talk than not to talk. And President Kaczyński has a principle that it is better to talk when there is something to talk about.