Raman Jakauleuski

A domestic discussion as for the bright future of Belarus, continuously promoted by the local democrats, must have begun. Surprisingly, it was initiated neither by the high and mighty nor by others. It was stirred up by the behavior of “alien” Euro-optimists from different structures.
They assure everyone that they are waiting for Belarus in Europe and propose a tool of “European Partnership” to meet the goal. A fit of interest to a sovereign Belarus on the part of Euro-optimists concurred quite strangely with revelations of some Euro-sceptics.

“The EU has turned into a non-democratic structure. It can be compared with the Communist regimes of Eastern Europe that banned the freedom of choice,” noted Vaclav Klaus, President of Czech Republic in his speech at the European Parliament. Moreover, he compared the EU with the former Soviet Union. As is well known, the Czech Republic has presided in the European Union since January 2009. According to Mr. Klaus, similar to the Soviet Republics, the EU member-states delegate a part of their authority to the union bodies and acknowledge the direct action of supranational legislation within the corresponding jurisdiction.

It is quite interesting that the builders of the rather obscure for bon sense “Union State of Belarus and Russia” are keen to discuss similar topics from time to time. However, it should be taken into account that both parts of the “Union” are struggling with severe consequences of the global economic crisis. Therefore, it is not always the case that the Belarusian government and the Kremlin reach consent in their relations. Thus, e.g. the issue of introducing a common currency remains to be a moot point.
As for the European Union, the observers note that certain disagreements as for the ways of fighting against the global crisis are growing in the EU. Consequently, quite a few experts predict an eventual split in the EU structure.
A demonstrative refusal of the Czech government to introduce Euro in the country was generally caused by fears of official Prague that the national economy would be managed by the EC officials from Brussels.
The so-called “Euro-realists” have started appearing more often in hot arguments between Euro-optimists and Euro-sceptics. The group of “Euro-realists” is led by a former President of Poland Aleksandr Kvasnieuski, who decided to gather a group of “highbrows” in the field of EU policies, ready to help the present-day Belarus to overcome the current state of foreign policy self-isolation.

Nobody knew Lord Bell in Belarus then. However, the “highbrows’” suggestions were rejected by the Belarusian regime at that time. Among other, this negative reaction was caused by the presence of concrete undesirable personalities in the group. It should be mentioned that the “group of sages” included Antanas Valioni, Ex-head of Lithuanian Foreign Office and Borys Tarasiuk, Ex-head of Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Actually, once the Belarusian official side rejected to issue an ambassador’s agrement to the Lithuanian diplomat. The Ukrainian diplomat wasn’t beating about the bush, while talking about the Belarusian regime in power either.
Thus, the “rescue rangers’ group” with the “Euro-realist” Aleksandr Kwasniewski at the head couldn’t enjoy the Belarusian officials’ confidence anyway. Especially since Aleksandr Kwasniewski used to play a significant role during the Orange revolution in Ukraine.

They say, it was the President of Poland, who managed to “wake up” Javier Solana and the EU commissioners in Brussels, who nearly overslept the Ukrainian revolution.

It was like it was. However, having cured “orange” allergy, the Belarusian governmental officials are making attempts to stir up bilateral relations with Ukraine. Among other, the EU “Eastern Partnership” program is used to meet the goal. Presently, Javier Solana is waking up everyone else in relations to Belarus in his turn.
Thus, Borys Tarasiuk, a former Head of Ukrainian Foreign Office and a present MP from the “Nasha Ukraina – Narodnaya Samooborona” parliamentary group believes that J. Salana’s visit to Minsk means a fundamental change of EU policies in relation to Belarus. (Presently, J. Salana is holding the position of EU High Representative for CFSP). Simply saying, it lifts isolation of Belarus. In particular, B. Tarasiuk noted as follows in his interview to RFE/RL: “J.Solana’s visit to Minsk manifests a change of conceptual approaches in the EU in relation to Belarus”

According to B. Tarasiuk, the current EU position is a follow-up of the Ukrainian position. “Out international working group on Belarus, lead by a former President of Poland Aleksandr Kwasniewski elaborated a range of recommendations for the USA and the EU, grounded on the assumption that the isolation policy in relation to Belarus… caused more harm to the Belarusian people and the Belarusian democracy than to Lukashenka’s regime.” B. Tarasiuk hailed the change of EU approaches in relation to Belarus. “I think it is a positive shift, provided it leads to democratization of Belarus.” ‘Euro-realists’ inside Belarus keep drawing general attention to this ‘provided’ all the time. Unfortunately, the ‘Euro-optimists’ from abroad feel reluctant to talk to them. Then, the Belarusian political elite decided to remind the European colleagues about the Belarusian realities once again.

J. Salana’s statement about the absence of pre-conditions for setting relations with the dictatorial Belarus is a carte-blanch to Lukashenka’s regime for carrying on repressions against the opposition. This idea was clearly articulated by Stanislau Shushkievich, ex-Chairman of Supreme Soviet of Belarus, Andrei Sannikau, a leader of “European Belarus” campaign and a former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alaksandr Kazulin, a former political prisoner and a former rector of Belarusian State University, Mikhail Marynich, a former minister of External Economic Relations of Belarus as well as Lavon Barshcheuski, a former leader of BPF Party (till September 2009) during their common press-conference.

Hard to say, if it was by coincidence that on the day of the press conference, held by Belarusian Euro-realists, the Russian governmental RIA “Novosti” distributed disinformation about inclusion of Belarus in the EU-initiated “Eastern Partnership” program. Also, some anonymous information sources from Brussels had distributed false information about lifting the EU sanctions in relation to Belarus a bit before. It looks like some forces are making attempt to work more diligently than the memorable Lord Bell.

Andrei Sannikau noted during the press-conference that the “Eastern Partnership” program presumed equal approach to the political and economic issues. Actually, it stipulated development of cooperation on the grounds of common reforms. “What common reforms do the democratic united Europe and the dictatorial Belarus may have?” A. Sannikau wondered at the press-conference.

Thus, it has to be stated that the Belarusian Euro-realists are opposed both by Euro-optimists and cynical pragmatics, advocating “realpolitik”. Most probably, it will be possible to see the results of the discussion on Belarus, initiated by European politicians, by the end of the year 2009, as soon as the global economic crisis is expected by different experts and analysts to overflow the country in full by then.